shotroulette|日月股份(603218)：盈利能力稳中有升 新产品有望打开新增量

Investment events: the company released its annual report of 2023 and quarterly report of 2024ShotrouletteRevenue for the whole year in 2023Shotroulette. 5.6 billion yuan, year-on-year-4Shotroulette.30%, the net profit of return to the mother is 482 million yuan, + 39.84% compared with the same period last year; the net profit of non-return to the mother is 425 million yuan, which is 698 million yuan in a single quarter compared with the same period last year, which is-34.96% compared with the same period last year; the net profit of return to the mother is 87 million yuan,-33.98% compared with the same period last year. The net profit of deducting non-return to the mother is 70 million yuan,-37.35% compared with the same period last year. The product structure is continuously optimized and the profitability is improved. In 2023, the company's casting output / sales volume was 44.93 / 447500 tons respectively, compared with the same period last year-1.92pct/-0.39pct, the overall product order situation was stable, and the production and sales were basically balanced. By the end of the reporting period, the company had formed a foundry capacity of 700000 tons and a finishing capacity of 320000 tons. At present, the construction of finishing capacity of 220000 tons of large castings is being vigorously promoted, and a finishing capacity of 540000 tons will be formed at that time, which will basically make up for the short boards of finishing, and obtain profits from processing links while building an "integrated delivery" industry chain. At the same time, the company began to develop nuclear power spent fuel transfer storage tanks, which has mass manufacturing capacity during the reporting period, and began to lay out the high-end alloy steel market to further optimize and enrich the company's product line. In 2023, the company's gross profit margin was 18.66%, year-on-year + 5.82pctdex2024Q1 gross profit 21.77%, year-on-year + 1.37pct, month-on-month + 5.71pct, improved profitability, mainly due to the decline of the company's scale effect. With the optimization of the company's product structure and the release of production capacity in the future, profitability is expected to be further improved. The wind power industry ushered in a business cycle, and the "two seas strategy" made new breakthroughs. With the successful implementation of the product large-scale and lightweight technology route, the ceiling of the growth space of the wind power industry has been opened, the cumulative bidding volume has repeatedly reached new highs, and the industry has ushered in a new stage of development. In 2023, domestic wind power installed new 75.90GW connected to the grid, an increase of 102 percent over the same period last year, and the cumulative installed capacity reached 440 million kilowatts, an increase of 20.7 percent over the same period last year. On April 1, 2024, the National Development and Reform Commission, the National Energy Administration and the Ministry of Agriculture and villages jointly issued the Circular on organizing the "Wind Control Action in thousands of Townships and villages", which will significantly promoteShotrouletteThe development of land-based distributed wind power in China. After 2024, global wind power installation will enter a stage of steady growth, in which the growth rate of offshore wind power installation is significantly higher. Offshore wind power installation and emerging market development will become the main driving forces for wind power installation in the next 5-10 years. During the reporting period, the company continued to develop large-megawatt wind power products, and the wholly-owned subsidiary Rixing casting industry has good location advantages, and the delivery capacity of offshore large-scale wind power castings is strong. In 23 years, the main business achieved export income of 696 million yuan, + 9.43% compared with the same period last year; gross profit margin 34.43%, + 11.39% over the same period last year. Overseas market expansion is smooth. We will increase investment in R & D and create new increments in performance. During the reporting period, the company invested a total of 259 million yuan in R & D expenses, which was + 16.77% compared with the same period last year. The company is committed to the research and development of large-scale products in the wind power industry, based on ductile iron technology, constantly conquers the "thick cross-section" technology, and develops nuclear power spent fuel transfer storage tanks to complete the production and delivery of the prototype. In recent years, the examination and approval of nuclear power units in China has been accelerated, the prospect of spent fuel recovery and disposal is broad, the technical barriers in storage and transportation are high, and the company has been in reserve for many years, which is expected to become a new performance growth point. In the field of alloy steel, cast steel products with special materials such as low alloy steel and chromium-molybdenum steel have been successfully developed to further optimize and enrich the product line, enhance risk resistance and expand new product growth space. Investment advice: the company is the leader in the field of wind power castings, with the gradual release of production capacity, the market share is expected to further increase; spent fuel storage and transportation is expected to contribute new increments. Taking into account the intensification of competition in the industry and the slowdown of the offshore wind power industry affected by non-economic factors in the past 23 years, we adjust our profit forecasts and estimate that the company's net profit for 24-26 years will be 6.49,8.28 and 1.027 billion yuan respectively (the previous forecast for 2024-2025 is 10.37 yuan and 1.251 billion yuan), corresponding to EPS0.63, 0.80 and 1.00 yuan per share, corresponding to PE20, 15 and 12 times, and maintain the "buy" rating. Risk tips: 1, raw material price fluctuations; 2, fan installation is not as expected; 3, industry competition intensified. [disclaimer] this article only represents the views of a third party and does not represent the position of Hexun. Investors operate accordingly, at their own risk.

[disclaimer] this article only represents the views of a third party and does not represent the position of Hexun. Investors operate accordingly, at their own risk.